Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 30a

Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 09, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues west-northwestward
toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...little change in
strength...

hurricane warnings remain in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to perdenales. A tropical storm
watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast of the Dominican
Republic from palenque westward to Barahona.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for central and eastern Cuba from
Matanzas eastward.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 8 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located by an
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 15.2
north...longitude 72.8 west or about 325 miles...520 km...
southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...21 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track the hurricane will be nearing Jamaica on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr... with
higher gusts. Ivan remains a dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

The latest minimum central pressure extrapolated by the hurricane
hunter was 923 mb...27.26 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...15.2 N... 72.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 923 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office. In the United
States...hurricane local statements are being issued by the weather
forecast office in Key West regarding evacuations currently in
progress.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Beven