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It is because they don't really know. The track will continue to flip flop and change right up until a day or two before landfall. That is why they have already started evacuating the Keys, since it takes at least 2 days to do that. This is from the 5PM Discussion, and "thereafter" refers to after 2-3 days. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS DIVERGE. Bill |