Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 09 2004 09:50 PM
Re: Supplies in Manatee County Gone

Bev -- I would be making background preparations now, as it sounds like you are doing, and be prepared to move later in the week. Most projected paths, including the NHC official track, keep you on the eastern side of the storm, which means you all are bound to see something. Whether that is a direct landfall, a brushing blow, or a glance from afar to the west remains to be seen.

Keep prudent in following the storm, but don't make any rushed decisions. It is better with *all* storms to play it safe rather than sorry, meaning even if it is a sunny day in your area, you didn't take the risk of a cat 2-4 hurricane making landfall with you stuck in the midst of it. A lot in life is about minimizing risks: sometimes you have to take a risk to get ahead, but this is certainly not one of those times.

We'll know more later in the weekend about where it is going, but Tennessee should be an option you strongly consider, even if the storm ends up hitting extreme S. Florida or into the western panhandle, far away from your area. Better safe than sorry, I say, and the errors in the best models (which have been the FSU Superensemble and the NHC official track, both at ~150mi at 5 days with Frances) are still substantial enough to cause the storm to veer from a projected course to, say, Apalachicola to a course towards Mobile or towards Tampa Bay.



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