This mornings comments in Melbournes forecast discussion are insightful:

MON-THU...TPC TRACK GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION 00Z GLOBAL SUITE...
IS OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA...ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT YET
CERTAIN...AFTER ABOUT H72...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BREACH
IN THE DLM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIGHT AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT ERN GOMEX. THE GFS/UKM/ECM AND GFS-BASED TROPICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PENINSULAR FLORIDA LANDFALL WITH THE
CNDN GEM SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA...LEAVING THE NOGAPS
AS SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...ALTHOUGH
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL EFFECTS...SW/SOUTH FL IS
PRETTY MUCH BRACKETED BY GUIDANCE...AND THUS THE CWA IS LOOKING AT
PSBL EFFECTS FROM YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE. AGAIN...EXACT TRACK/
INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH IVAN PASSING AS
CLOSE TO THE AREA AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...CWA MAY BE LOOKING AT
UNCHARTED TERRITORY AS FAR AS FLOODING EFFECTS ALONE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH THE ALREADY WEAKENED STATE OF SO MANY TREES AROUND THE AREA...
AND STRUCTURES WHICH ARE ALREADY SUFFERING ROOF AND OTHER DAMAGE
WOULD ONLY MAGNIFY POTENTIAL WIND EFFECTS. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL
PLAYS OUT.