Sorry, but you're getting some wrong information again. The Superensemble has never called for a landfall west of Pensacola; in fact, the 12z run today is the first one that even brings it to landfall...and I'll tell you this much: it's 200+ miles from Pensacola, and not west.

The FSU Superensemble has consistantly been on the left hand side of the track guidance. The NHC official is almost directly over the GFDL, the ensemble mean, and the GUNA (GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN) consensus. Both have track errors from Frances of just 150mi. at 5 days, a very low error and both by far the best. FSU Superensemble says Panhandle, NHC says Tampa...we'll see what happens.

But I can assure you and everyone out there that it does not say west of Pensacola, and never has.