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Looking at the 1011 am EDT/1411 UTC visible satellite image from NRL Monterrey CAT 4 Ivan's eyewall has collapsed. He is currently experiencing a some unexpected (by me) WSW shearing and is also over a large patch of cooler ocean water. Of course this latest weakening development is a good development for Jamaica. He continues on an approximate WNW heading at 13 mph but I think we "may" see him begin to turn more NW and slow down within 12-18 hours.

This slowing of his forward speed will "possibly" allow Ivan to turn NW-N along 80-81 deg. west longitude instead of 82-83 deg. west longitude. So at this time I'm revising my landfall forecast, something I rarely do!!!

I place a CAT 4 hurricane strike at 50% along the southern coast of Florida between Fort Lauderdale and Naples.

I place a CAT 3-4 hurricane strike at 55% along the gulf coast of Florida between Naples and Tarpon Springs.

I place a CAT 3 hurricane strike at 45% along the gulf coast of Florida between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key.

I place a CAT 2-3 hurricane strike at 40% in the big bend area between Cedar Key and Panacea.

Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL