ivan should be making an impact on the gulf coast.. probably on tuesday. i've been hanging on a west florida hit below apalachicola.. going to narrow my window from st marks down to naples now. late tomorrow i'll be ready to draw an X.
with almost utter certainty that florida takes a hit on the gulf side, intensity is the big question remaining. latest IR shows a reorganizing inner core.. wouldn't be surprised if the storm goes back to borderline 5 as it impacts jamaica later. the official track has it grazing the southwest side of jamaica.. i'm expecting it to go onshore, with the capital seeing eyewall effects. right of the caymans as a 4, and a cuba crossing south of the florida keys..also as a 4, with the storm having turned nnw at that point. final impact on west florida should be a cat 2 or 3. the higher up the coast it hits, the weaker. kinda duh, since this is more or less the official, but i'm thinking the official is on the ball for now.
one thing not previously mentioned that troubles me greatly.. creeks and rivers are running high in much of florida, the southeast coastal plain, piedmont, and southern appalachians. with ivan progged to move over the same area, decelerating and bending back to the left as ridging rebuilds.. tremendous flooding potential exists in frances wake. the west coast of florida looks to take a hammer blow, but that likely won't be the end of the story.
elsewhere nothing exciting in the basin. weak low on a wave nearing the islands (14/58 or so).. some convection, but it's awfully close behind ivan. low prob of development. wave midway between africa and the islands low-amplitude and indistinct. wave that left the coast yesterday with some amplitude and gyration near the cape verde islands.. not very perky at this point.
td 10 remnants south of the azores drifting SE.. ssts low and shear not good at this point, but it still has a comma-shaped convective signature sheared east.. and the upper environment should revert to ridging in a day or two.. don't expect anything though.
the complex upper trough/low arrangement in the central atlantic may beget a surface system, but too confused at this point to make any reasonable guesses. it has entrained lots of tropical energy, and plenty of low level convergence there.. just hasn't evolved to where it can spawn anything.
td 13e in the eastpac has another development counter going in the atlantic. may see another storm or two next week. peak of the season now.
HF 2115z10september