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The Official NHC forecast at 5 shifted slightly to the left....but not as far left as the models have shifted today. The more accurate modelling has indeed shifted to the west today....the most significant being the ECMWF, which has bird-dogged Ivan thru the Keys and up the EAST coast for the last several days...it has now settled in with a Big-Bend landfall...the rest of the more reliable track modelling has shifted to the west as well in the 12 and 18z runs. |