They were forecasting Ft. Myers early, then Tampa. Actually, they were still forecasting Tampa when Charley made the abrupt turn into Port Charlotte.

I don't listen to just one model, I actually channel hop/surf the net to see what everyone is saying. What I'm trying to figure out is why the majority of the models say one thing, and the official track is something else. It seems that they take the eastern outlier and the western outlier and plunk the official right in the middle. That's even when I've looked at the models and at times not one of them agree with the official. Seems strange.

Incidentally, I'm not completely ignorant in this area, I have a science background and teach high school science (including earth science). Don't get me wrong, I'm not anywhere close to a met, but I do have a basic education in this area.