I'm certainly not a meteorologist but I know a fair bit about psychology. I've been wondering to myself if the Westward shift of the track had more to do with psychology than meteorology.

The NHC was blasted by some of the public for "Not Warning Us!" While the accusation was completely unfair, they had certainly stated time and again that there was an error of margin, stay on your toes, the storm could go anywhere in this range.

Nevertheless, the little dart showing the eye stayed right on Anna Maria Island for a very long time and people North and South watched the dart and became complacent.

I would not be surprised to see this track kept just off the coast until shortly before landfall. It keeps everyone on their toes instead of just a few of us.

I'm not saying it will or it won't hit in Tampa, I don't think anyone can say that until about an hour before it lands. But by keeping the dart from getting stuck in one point, the NHC keeps all the Gulf Coast and Panhandle on their toes. As it should!

Just my thoughts...
-Bev