I would agree that there is a good possiblity that keeping the track a little to the right was to keep people on their toes. But there are probably other reasons as well. One is that the models are still flucuating back and forth to some degree, and they don't all agree. There is also the fact that the FSU SENS and the GFDL did very well with Charley and Frances. The GFDL we can see, the FSU model we can't. There are other models that are not publicly available either. So don't discount that they have sources of information we do not. But I've been saying it now for several days, I really think they are not sure where it is going to go and are not going to commit to any extreme, they can't.

Bill