I watched the coverage on New Channel 8 last weekend when Frances was coming our way, and VIPIR had it nailed. I'm not saying that Steve Jerve is better than the NHC, but they have a pretty impressive record with the VIPIR model on Charley, Frances...and I hope it's wrong with Ivan.

Dennis Phillips was the one swearing that we wouldn't get hurricane force winds here in Tampa last weekend. We did. However, I remember distinctly with Charley that there was one model that he pointed out (the MM5?) that put it in at Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda and that was right.
We all want to know where it's going and when and we want to know RIGHT NOW. That's just human nature. Floridians are so on edge right now you could cut the tension with a knife. I talked to people tonight at football practice and most people said, "I'm not buying any track until it's an hour before landfall."
However....a brush along the coast will be no party whatsoever. That's why we have to remember that the storm isn't "just a point". When Georges was just about 100 miles offshore from Tampa, the winds and storms were horrendous. That was worse than anything we got (well, that I got) with Charley or Frances. Even if it's offshore by 50 miles, it's gonna be ugly.
I'm not letting my guard down until the track shifts 200 miles left.