Jamie, I think they have so much data coming at them, they don't know which way to go with it. The local TV met called me earlier, and he basically thinks the same thing. The phrase they put in the last discussion, was a "nice" way of saying we aren't sure either. It was close to a "No Duh" phrase.
As you have seen the tracks walk east and west all week. Any track west of the penisula would put Ivan along the coast. As Frank and others have pointed out in the probabilities post, on the other thread, the 65nm of a point is basically 1 degree of latitude or longitude. Wouldn't take too much variance off track to get the whole coast in the picture.