Richiesurfs: I wasn't implying that Jerve or Terry were NOT agreeing with the NHC, in fact they mentioned several times (maybe several HUNDRED times) that the NHC had done a terrific job with the very hard to forecast storms. Vipir is a local model that only forecasts 48 hours out. That being said, Channel 8 would show the NHC track first and then the VIPIR track and the VIPIR track was more accurate with future paths hour to hour...not off the NHC's track by much, but it did a great job of forecasting. I don't think that a statement by a local met stating that he thinks it may be a little further east than the official track is wrong, as "a little further east" is in the "cone". If you remember, Bryan Norcross was the ONLY one who went on the air to tell Miami residents that Andrew was headed their way ---something the NHC did not "forecast" --- and he was right. Just because these mets don't work for the NHC doesn't mean they're any less qualified to give a forecast. It's not like the NHC's saying "Texas" and he's saying "Tampa".
Tom Terry did a great job with Frances with the model they used. When the NHC was showing a near miss ala Floyd, Tom followed the path to a tee. Only when it was apparant that it WOULD hit Florida did he show their model..which turned it more west, making landfall almost exactly where he said it would.
I just wanted to clear that up.