RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 11 2004 12:07 AM
Re: Ivan Likely to Landfall in Jamaica Overnight as a Category 5 Hurricane

Quote:

the VIPIR track was more accurate with future paths hour to hour...not off the NHC's track by much, but it did a great job of forecasting.


I for one am tired of seeing VIPIR inappropriately compared to NHC forecasts. It is a great visual tool for the short term (6 hours) because it's a radar and weather feature perpetuation tool. If you were watching closely, VIPIR was all over the place for Frances. It kept taking Frances north up the east coast when Frances stalled. Only when Frances started moving a little faster toward FL did VIPIR show a more reasonable short-term movement. Notice that VIPIR has a bias to move broad circulations toward the NE.
Sorry I couldn't resist to add my .02.
Jeff


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