Email as of 11:30 pm:

The intense eyewall of CAT 5 Ivan is just south of the capital city of Kingston Jamaica at 11:15 pm EDT/0315 UTC. This is a catastrophic event we are watching and it will result in large loss of life. If you collect satellite images of tropical cyclones it's time to capture images of Ivan now because he is the perfect storm at the moment.

I forecast a landfall of a CAT 3 hurricane along the SW coast of Florida between Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay on Tuesday September 14, 2004, with a bulls eye on Siesta Key. Then we will see an inland track towards the NNE-NE possibly once again impacting the Orlando metro area. Statistically a second landfalling major tropical cyclone into Charlotte Harbor twice in one season is remote but the shallow estuary will be impacted in some negative way. A right turn into the SW coast due to speed divergence much like Charley is probable with Ivan, but Ivan will move slower then Charley. I forecast Ivan to be only a CAT 3 at landfall due to developing SW shear in the region.

By the way I can't ever remember a "major" hurricane landfalling in the big bend region of north Florida.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL