your friend was lying,, i didnt see that..lol anyways seriously though, tampa isnt out of the question. If you look at the water vapor loop you can see what could be the final determining factor on where Ivan will end up. There is a fast short wave pulse diving se into Kansas and Oklahoma from the Rockies and the Pacific northwest.....now since Ivan is moving slowly near 8mph and is expected to stay moving slowly the next 48 hours,, this should give this pulse time to dive down into the N central gulf by Monday morning. By then Ivan should be near 22N and 82W moving NNW or N. Should this pulse continue east ( which it could) then that would deflect the hurricane off to the NNE or even NE after it gets north of 25-27N and 84W. Looking like BigBend area right now but not sure yet,,,,so anywhere from Venice up to Ft Walton Beach needs to keep a eye on this. Right now S Florida shouldnt get more then TS force winds if the center makes landfall in west central forida. The keys still arent completely out of a threat to get hurricane force winds,,especially in Keywest, but landfall there is less then 20% right now.