MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 11 2004 04:41 PM
Re: Models

First off, I too, want to extend my sympathies to all of those who were directly affected by 9/11 (we were all affected in different ways). I also want to salute those who are defending us so we have our freedoms. I am reminded of a quote by Jimmy Carter who said on 9/11 Americans never felt prouder, but now that feeling is gone. On 9/11, I felt a lot of things, but proud was not one. Try anger, fright (worried about the mail in my area from anthrax right after), and being mad as hell.
Back to the subject at hand:
The new GFS is rolling in as I type, out to 162 hours, and talk about a dramatic shift. It now takes it through the Yucatan channel, and has a Fla. panhandle landfall. In then tracks it north towards Ohio, which I have to question, because it should start to be influenced by the westerlies by then. This is a dramatic shift west in my view, but I want to await the model diagnostics to see how this initialized. Last night, it initialized too far south and west. The GFS biases in the past have been to be too far west. The last few storms, it has been too far east. Needless to say, it muddies the waters



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