Looks like Ivan is starting to get nasty again. Think it will just miss the Islands ahead of it..and slip through the Yucatan.

Haven't looked at the long term...cause it's a crap shoot past a day or so...anyhoo...

If it gets in the channel...then Florida mainland is spared...and I think we all can hope for that...

the long term thoughts are that the wind shear, troughs, and the like will weaken Ivan as it gets close to land. However, nothing like HOT SST's...and unpredictable patterns...to gum that up...

New Orleans as a major storm would be the worst case scenario for all.
Mobile for me would be worst case...

and best case is to stall...then get beat up by the trough, and come in as an aggravating cat 2...

we will see...for now...through the Yucatan...then the fun begins...

wonder what the People who fled the Keys will do next time they are asked to leave?