Sat Sep 11 2004 07:55 PM
Re: Is it me


What's up with this, could it go into the Yucatan?

This is doubtful, but it is a possibility. I recall Hurricane Mitch several years ago was consistently forecasted to turn north into the Gulf. It never verified and ended up in Central America because of a stronger-than-forecasted ridge north of the hurricane. Of couse, later Mitch reformed in the BOC and struck SW FL, but as a minimal disorganized TS. Mitch, however, was farther south than Ivan and Ivan is therefore unlikely to follow such a path, but I'm just throwing the possibility out there.

As I mentioned earlier today, we still must wait 48 hours before coming up with a forecast with even the slightest level of confidence. If you notice, the NHC's forecast has consistently pushed landfall further into the future. This cannot continue too much longer before we have to start re-evaluating the entire track.

This is a wait and see situation. There are so many variables that are too difficult to predict this far in advance. I wouldn't place much faith in the computer models and the NHC track at this point. It still looks like an E GOM event, probably in line with the NHC track, but I am getting a feeling that this storm is going to cause us many forecasting headaches before it is all said and done.

As form me, I'm ready to put up my plywood shutters here in Tampa. Nobody should be letting their guard down yet.

God Bless,

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