Ivan has a definate stair step pattern in his motion. Fifteen minute intervals seem to show the true general motion. Looks like it will be a very close run at Grand Cayman. Possibly a direct hit. I don't think frictional issues will save Grand Cayman like Jamacia was spared. If Ivan does hit Cuba, I actually think the frictional pattern will pull him slightly to the east for a short time and then he will resume his course.

This far out, I am leery of any forecast that is after landfalll in Cuba. The weaker Ivan becomes on his transverse of Cuba will probaby help dictate the what happens afterward. I think a stronger storm will trend further west then a weaker storm. No one on the Gulf Coast should let their guard down. However, I doubt that there will be a swing towards the Keys or SW Florida. I would not take a chance, though.

Edit to change prior to landfall to after landfall. [I had a brain fart while typing]