RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 11 2004 09:41 PM
Re: warm water, landfall

Quote:

The thinking by the local mets is that it will hit that trough and get "picked up" by it, thus causing the N to NE turn the NHC is predicting.

I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and Ivan hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift Ivan northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see Ivan remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.


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