I don't think they have all that much confidence in their forecast, and certainly don't want the west coast of Florida to let their guard down... its conceivable that the track could continue to slip off to the west over time... who knows.... I did nail the 285 degree heading in an earlier post, and also the NHC discusses the shear issue that I mentioned as a factor for weakening to a "major" hurricane in the GOM... and not a Cat 5 as discussed in the 11 pm... you can't measure direction based on an hour of wobbles... you need to average it out over time of at least 3-6 hours per se... I don't know where this thing will end up but people along the Northern and NE GOM need to be seriously thinking about their hurricane plans, if this scenario plays out...