I may have said this before but models ALWAYS have a bias when it comes to troughs( or "trofs"). Every model just about will have the trough effecting the storm in almost every case. The problem is that it doesn't happen that way every time. That is why you have to take the models with a grain of salt right now.How long have the models been dictating a NW movement when it has been moving WNW at most. Don't be fooled into automatically thinking that just because these models want to have these troughs have an effect on Ivan that it will happen. Remember, Ivan didn't pay attention to the first trough and he just might not pay attention to any of the rest. Until he actually makes a DEFINITE turn towards the north, definite meaning not just wobbles, than it is just here-say right now.

ShawnS