looking at sat and obs.... shear is starting to take effect in gulf, in response to weakness coming down across the mid and western gulf coast states....also note that the ULL east of florida is now moving ne..... i am thinking we will see a more north movement in the next few hrs, just clipping the cuban coast and than a ne turn.... it all depends on how a 915mb (IVAN) low responds to the features to the north.....yes it appears in 25-36 hrs ivan has a bigger wind field and is much larger.... how much this will help when he gets into the gulf will determine i think on how much of a shear beating he will take..... i am thinking a northerly movement should start within 12-24hrs.... i also think ivan just finished a eye wall replacement....there is strong convection on se side in last hr... recon is almost to storm.... should have vortex soon