With repeated westward movement of the guidance, even this dramatic shift isn't too surprising after NHC mentioned the erosion of the ridge @ 90 W. Even as an FSU grad, I noticed that the SE was password protected. (What did my tuition buy me anyway?).

Possibly bad news for coastal MS and Greater N.O., but it still seems to be a dynamic situation (even a possible brush with the Yucatan?). I'm wondering about the intensity forecasts. Even two days ago, moderate shear in the Gulf was cited as a reason to hope for weakening (even if only to Cat. 3). The latest only mentioned cold water upwelling for this forecast. Is the shear no longer in play, and with SST's around 82-85 F, is this realistic?

Thanks to all. I just found this page, and will continue to monitor...