this storm has humbled many experts. As a scientist I know about variables. A good experiment should only have one variable. Unfortunately the NHCs hypotheses are continually off because of the number of variables and varables within variables like intensity and speed. Models are only as good as data that is entered into the models. Personally i think the five day forecast should be removed because it is horribly inaccurate and publick misinterpretation (due to misinterpretation by the media). I think they need more buoys in the carribean in a grid like fashion so they can measure pressure changes in the climate surrounding hurricanes. ONce again it seems the ocean is this great mystery that we have hideously small amounts of data compared to land.