Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 13 2004 01:43 PM
Re: model shifts

I didn't mean to come down on that poster, but he had URGENT capitalized at the beginning of his post and used the IR to show a North Wobble where indeed, the eye was turning inside of the storm. When going to visible, that all straightens itself out.

For the Bastardi fans, he's come out with his forecast for landfall at or near the Mouth of the Mississippi River with 120-140 winds and a pressure of 925-940. He thinks there will be gale force winds out 200 miles to either side of the center and that the storm will move painfully slow through the southern Appalachains causing a fairly catastrophic flood event for some (think that would be GA, SC, NC). He believes the track of Ivan will be through the Yucatan channel and not across Cuba.

Certainly this should get everyone's attention almost all the way to Tallahassee. Ivan is shaping up to be potentially the worst North Gulf storm in a few decades and certainly one for the history books and a new point of reference for each and every one of us.

I think Bastardi's a bit far west, but either way, if I'm between Bay St. Louis and Orange Beach, I'm REALLY getting my stuff together this afternoon.

Steve



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