So far, the forecast is panning out just about as we expected here in my weather office...the turn is slighly sharper than I first thought, but in the end it should be about right regardless.

One thing to remember as you look at 12z model data. DON'T. The models initialized with a WNW motion, but he made the turn to the NW or NNW about the time of the runs, so the models are all a bit (or a lot) too far west right now. Stacy caught this, and will probably expand upon it at 5.

I see no reason to change my forecast philosophy or reasoning and am now going to call for a landfall, near or (more likely) in my viewing area, just slightly west of Panama City, early Thursday (time to hang my hat on something...I have hedged long enough).