jth
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 13 2004 07:22 PM
Re: model shifts

I wish someone could anwer whether that wa a new Bastardi forecast after the turn occurred, or before the turn. Contrary to some on here, I find him very accurate. He will miss a few, but most of the time, he is dead on. If he has a bias, it is to either 1. turn storms too much (i.e. Frances) or 2. try to take them to Texas. He also has a tendency to give worst case scenarios, but rarely actually predicts them. In my opinion, he is much better with long term forecasts and pattern eveolvement, but I will still listen to what he has to say.

Long story short, if this was post turn forecast, there has to be a good explanation for him continuing to forecast the more westward track.

Sorry for rambling on.



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