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It been moving moreless NW with a turn to the NNW so they are saying NNW but dont expect that to continue. Reason they have the track about the same or slightly west is cause they run the 5pm tracks off the 12z runs of the models..Now like Jason says,,,lets see if the models initialize IVAN with the current NNW movement,, if so, and they turn it more N then NNE or NE it might be earlier before landfall. In that case the NHC will see those 18z runs and use them for the 11pm forcast path. Everyone with me? So generally 12z was 8am with the models, then NHC uses its path in general with the models from the previous runs which was 12z.

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