dd, there is an upper level low which is not easily visible on most sat pics or surface maps that is directly responsible for shifting the track from the wnw to nnw. That low is moving away slowly, and as it does, will gradually lose its influence on Ivan, therefore, it should start to move NW again instead of NNW. There is another one coming though, and this SHOULD cause even more of a turn to the right. Also, in the Gulf, the upper level winds are from the west or southwest, so as it gains latitude, that will also bend its track back. That will also create some shear-stronger winds in a direction that can hurt the convection's organization, and that is why they expect it to weaken a little. As for forecasting where it should land, I don't want to do it, because I am afraid too much credence might be given to an amateur's view, and I don't want to scare anyone. If this were landfalling in another part of the country, maybe I'd be a little less reluctant to do so.