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Oh colleen you could be right,,,,,,,Tampa area ( where I live) could be back in the edge of the swath if the right things happen,,but if they do it has to be tonight into tomorrow. I dont think much will change at 11pm, maybe slightly east from what Im seeing and info I'm recieving but the 5am will really be the update to watch. OZ models and also how much the trough digs down into the n central gulf.
Ok now this is what I see going on, Im getting alittle worried about a small chance of it turning more N then NNE tomorrow afternoon instead of later tuesday night into Weds. Im not saying this will happen, but its there. Thing is this, 1st off there is a very strong trough in the rockies moving into the plains tonight and will start digging into the Ohio valley Tuesday night into Weds. There are 3 ridges right now, 1 near the Bahamas, 2nd over the ohio valley and 3rd over texas into the western gulf. Now the strong trough is pushing the ridge over texas alittle more to the se into the western gulf causing the weak trough over the norhern and ne gulf to dig alittle bit more. The main vortex is over n GA and is forcasted to be pushed NE ahead of the main trough. Thing is though it might be blocked by the ridge over the Ohio valley which is also pusing east due to the stronger trough to the west so it might not move out as fast and head more east and slowly to the carolinas digging down into the NE Gulf on Tuesday. Since it will be there, IVAN will then turn more N- NNE-NE sooner. So what do we have here then? Watch and see pretty much. If the trough moves to the NE then the ridge in the ohio valley will move behind it briefly between the troughs and keep this more NW into LA-AL area just beginning to feel the main trough. If the ridge moves east and blocks the weak trough while the ridge over the gulf pushes more east (which its doing now) this would cause more troughiness over the Ne gulf and steer Ivan sooner to the NE.

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