LI Phil
Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

Morning all...thanks for the new thread Mike.

Mike's update says it all, so just a couple of quick thoughts. If the NHC track's not going to be good news for Mobile...JB's been opining that a strong CAT III or IV (possible) making a strike just west of the Bay would have a similar effect to the 1938 storm that pushed 20' of water into downtown Providence...yeesh. Rick...MBFly...and anyone else in that area better get the hell out of there now! Be interesting to see if the USS Alabama is still there Thursday afternoon.

Another troubling aspect of this storm is the potential for inland flooding. Latest NHC 5 day shows VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT for days 4 & 5, essentially stalling out over the Tennessee Valley. Inland folks will be getting pummeled with heavy, drenching rains...maybe even ala Camille. This one is going into the record books for sure, and has the potential to affect millions upon millions of people.

JB also has opined that NO is by no means out of the woods, so the folks there had also better be sure to keep their eyes on this one...

Despite everyone's best efforts, there's still no way to nail down a landfall or an intensity...the endgame will be interesting for sure.

Everybody on the GOM you be safe and LEAVE EARLY if you're within the cone!

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