LI Phil
Tue Sep 14 2004 04:57 PM
Re: Water vapor

>>> Hello, could someone explain to me when I look on the water vapor satellite image the black and orange is the dry air? And how does this or will this effect Ivan, because from what I see it looks to be where they say Ivan will make landfall . Does this not have some effect on the steering of a hurricane? Thank you.

I'm far from an expert on this, but lemme give it a shot...yes, the brown (orange?) is dry air. This would serve to weaken a hurricane...but...(haven't checked for bout an hour) last I looked, Ivan was maintaining pretty decent outflow...that's the "explosion" of counterclockwise 'air' from the hurricane...that serves to mitigate the effects of the dry air. We'll see what effect it has on Ivan.

As get gets more northerly in the gulf, he's expected to encounter some more shear and the upper-level westerlies will also begin to go to work on his high cloud he should definitely weaken down to a CAT III. Also appeared to be undergoing another ERC last I looked.

Still think he's going into Mobile (sorry guys) as a Strong III...

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