The Mobile NWS office, in their latest public statement on the storm, puts it best for everyone in the projected path of this storm:

"...THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT OF HURRICANE FREDERIC... "

Frederic killed one person and resulted in $2.5 billion dollars worth of damage. The Dauphin Island area was completely devestated by the storm. And now, nearly twenty-five years later, with a much greater population and property values, a storm of similar magnitude is expected to hit the same region.

This one statement says it all:

"IF THE SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF WEST BEACH AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA NEAR THE 3 MILE MARKER IN BALDWIN COUNTY. IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA PENSACOLA BEACH WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF NAVARRE BEACH IN SANTA ROSA AND HIGHWAY 98 BETWEEN FORT WALTON BEACH AND DESTIN IN OKALOOSA COUNTY. WATER LEVELS WITH HURRICANE IVAN WILL LIKELY BE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN THOSE THAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE FREDERIC IN 1979...WHICH IS THE BENCHMARK STORM FOR THE MOBILE AREA AND COULD BE NEAR OPAL'S LEVELS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IVAN IS ACCURATE...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER DAUPHIN ISLAND AND OVER THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA...WITH SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING ALSO OCCURRING OVER GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. SIGNIFICANT BUT LESSER FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. "

Heed the warnings everyone and stay safe. If you are in the Mobile/Pensacola area right now -- including points 50 miles east and west -- please have all of your preparations completed as soon as possible and get to a shelter or other safe place (including locations such as Arkansas, Texas, and further west). Hotels in Louisiana are hard to come by -- if not completely booked -- meaning the roads are going to be clogged for many miles. The sooner you can get out, the better. Play it safe with this one -- I cannot emphasize that enough.