lemme see... big bend idea.. done for. the grouped modeling is saying central gulf coast.. emphasis on alabama's small coastline. if it goes left it gets the biloxi-pascagoula area.. right and pensacola takes it on the nose. no good options here.. save weakening. high heat content ssts don't always affect mature hurricanes very much.. take frances rolling over the gulfstream earlier this month and not reintensifying before hitting florida. ivan is in a light shear/light subsidence environment.. warm eddy or no i'm thinking it stays where it is at worst and weakens down to a 105-110kt storm at best. world of difference between a 3 and a 4. don't see a 2 happening.. always possible, but don't see it. so, ivan breaks billions of dollars worth of real estate at the coast. then it goes inland.. and modeling is going cuckoo with it from there. the official may say a deceleration over the cumberland plateau, but the trend recently has been for most every model to turn the storm southerly, on a backtrack path as it decays. being september i wouldn't expect this scenario to unfold (usually a summer tropical storm like allison of 2001 or alberto of 1994). but here we are at the precipice of fall and that's what ivan will probably do. parts of the south are in for a massive flooding event.
oh yeah, then there's jeanne. the forecast track takes it near the bahamas.. as a hurricane (with the long range conservatism evident).. which translates to probably a strong hurricane in the bahamas next week. past the official forecast period, ridging near the east coast is progged to strengthen.. the storm should bend left and hit the southeast coast later next week. frances and gaston have recently churned the waters there, but the upwelling and mixing effects are largely dissipated at this point.. jeanne is poised to be a present follow-on threat.
SOI went negative, and the eastpac action should continue to mirror atlantic development (jeanne may be the response to isis).. with javier active a karl may well appear next week. par for the course this year, it seems.
good luck buckling down or getting out if you're on the middle gulf coast. i'm hoping for the best... prayers are as much as i can offer.
HF 0405z15september