South Florida is square in the middle of the "cone". If you have been reading the NHC discussions over the last day or so, the models are not all in agreement and have been changing every run. Yesterday it was the GFDL that had Jeanne coming right through Miami. Now it is further to the right, but the 00Z run had Jeanne skimming along the East Florida coast from Miami to Jacksonville. The 00Z of the GFS was east, the 06Z has Jeanne going North of the Bahamas and then coming back SW across South Florida. Also yesterday the FSU SENS was to the left of the NHC track (according to the NHC). It is still too early to tell exactly what will happen. And although I am not a big JB fan, JB is calling for a Florida Straits path. It will all have to do with Ivan's influence on the ridge.

Bill