It looks like the benchmark today for Jeanne will be whether she survives the mountains of the Dominican Republic. On my last vacation there, I biked those mountains and they are some very high peaks. I believe the highest peak is called Pico Duarte and is 11,000 feet above sea level. Jeanne's current track seems to be jogging southwest which is a little unexpected according to the models. Take a look...

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#jeanne

My "guess-cast" is for Jeanne to weaken but survive the DR. After that I think she will regain her strength. If she is a slow mover, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild post-Ivan and Jeanne will go further west than the models are now predicting. If Jeanne moves quickly, the ridge won't have time to rebuild and she will follow the models' path and go north towards the Carolinas.