Very good on Ivan, but Bastardi is their chief forecaster on these and he is arguing against the models as being generally biased to the right of the actual forecast path. Part of this forecast is also based on the "noodels wiggling around" on the Ivan model runs past 48 hours and some of them retuning the remnants to the SW which Bastardi said will pull Jeanne westward over the Florida into the GOM
Believe me when I say we don't need that...I drove across Florida to Pt St. Lucie and back yesterday...what you see especially in the 30 mile wide Charley swath is not pretty...absolutely every building with damage even 75 miles inland in that path...something we will see in Pensacola, et. al today, unfortunately