I think that, for whatever reason, the GFS has had a hard time this year forecasting the intensity of ridges and movement of troughs with relation to the tropical systems. This is in turn skews some of the other models because they use the GFS outlook as part of their forecasting. I'm pretty sure the European and Canadian models do not do this. With that said the forecasts have trended to bring systems too far north too soon. Charley never made it near as far north as was forecasted(though the trough that pulled him across the state was incredibly strong and rare for that time of year). Frances had been forecast for a while to make landfall around Daytona Beach-Cocoa Beach. When in reality she never made it that far north. Ivan had been forecast to pass over Jamaica and in between the Caymans and Cuba. That too did not materialize. I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems. Right now it appears that there is a wide open space off the coast of Florida for her to take, but she needs to get to there before the ridge inches back in. The last couple sat loops I checked it looked like the ridge has crept down as far south as about 22n and as far west as about 72w. This will change over the next few days, and how much it does depends on exactly where Ivan goes and how strong he is while he's travelling there.