I understand totally what you're saying but don't you think that the NHC is really getting all the information they have at their disposal and then putting out what they think is their best forecast at that given time? They warn that their projections can have large margins of errors and to not pay attention to one specific spot for landfall. Did they ever actually come out and say " It's hitting Tampa bay on the nose?' I know with Frances they never gave a specific landfall point until the final hours and they didn't with Ivan either. I know they had thier little line drawn through the cone area but the whole time the local forecasters here were saying" it's coming in at Vero Beach" the NHC was saying "its to early to speculate on an exact landfall point." I know cuz I was reading those NHC updates every six hours. People on this board did pick the right point of landfall for Ivan but In my opinion they are still making very educated guesses(sp). i don't mean to take anything away from anyone on here because I have heaps of respect for the people who post on here. I learn so much reading them but even with that being said in the end I''m sticking with the NHC. I feel on average you will always do better that way.