Do you know how many models there actually are.?..ever count all the strands of "spaghetti"?
There are as many models probably as registered uses on this forum...none of them are actually perfectly correct at any time and the NHC uses a consensus of them to forecast (there is even a concensus model and their track is usually close to that).
This forum serves a similar function to the models. From an admittedly mostly amatuer but somewhat knowledgable group of participants we too generate a sense of consensus about what we see that guides us into some certainty about what will happen...We do pretty good... many here accurately had Charley, Frances and "Ivan the terrible" too Not everybody agreed but the correct ideas were out there for us all to discuss.
We are doing it by good old fashioned observation of the weather from the Sats etc...this is what makes this forum so much fun. We are not all right or any one of us totally right at any one time but out of all this chatter some ideas of some credibllity emerge, that I rely upon.
Good Job!