One other idea about the models....the FSU Super hadn't even picked up on the MS/AL targetting until about 3 or 4 days out. I distinctly remember Clark on here hinting (cauz he can't say due to nondisclosures, etc) that the FSU Super was NOT forecasting anything west of Pensacola, despite what people were rumoring on the boards. Up until about 4 days out, it was still aiming around the Big Bend area, just like all the other models.

I think, in retrospect, none of the models handled how far west Ivan made it without making its northward turn. Many excellent Mets also didn't see the far westward movement. Once Ivan skated past Grand Cayman, with the eyewall mostly missing it, most of the models began to initialize aiming at MS/AL, and they verified pretty well.

The models are definitely getting better than they were in the past. The human factor, well, that's a different story than the models.

I know more than a few people who kept swearing that Ivan was going to come through the Yucatan Gap and turn right into Tampa, or points just slightly north.

Now, Jeanne, well, that's another pickle....I'm going to keep the plywood handy, because I just get this feeling (Jeanne or not) that we're not done in Central Florida yet. Swear this has got something to do with my college graduation. Finally graduate and try to get a job, and all the hurricanes start coming at us....figures....