| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 PM |
Re: Jeanne
|
Once the NHC reinitialized Ivan after it had continued wes for two days longer than predicted it nailed it on the 5 day.
What happened in the earlier predictions was, as Bastardi argues, the models faild to factor the vigorous ULL in the mid atlantic unti lit had already kicked the ridge controlling Ivan pretty hard to the SW. I took tow days for the effect of that to really register and by then it had spent itself and lifted out to the north, thus making the 5 day run starting on Sat evening reliable.