11 days ago I posted on Storm2k , in a forum calling for people to make their predictions as to where they thought Ivan would go, that I thought the storm might threaten the New Orleans area, but I was really leaning towards hiting the Mobile area and maybe 25 miles to the east of Mobile... I think I might have nailed this one.... and one of the biases for that prediction was the model run of the Canadian at the time, which as leaning left with each and every run... so I went with it, and adjusted it somewhat to the right, alittle, as influenced by some other models.... is this more guesscasting then forecasting... naw, because I think they are basically the same provided you have some kind of scientific rationale for your prediction... now I'm not sure how far Ivan's eye went east of Mobile, but I bet is darn close to 25 miles... approximately 11-12 days out on Ivan (not sure exact time period but close enough) the CMC outperformed all other models.... period.... including the FSU SE... my humble opinion only... another note, if my memory does not fail me, the CMC was one of the few models 10 days out or so that took Frances across SE Florida into the GOM....

I think I might start paying attention to what the CMC says on this here Ms Jeanne too....

My wife works for MS Power, she has reports that their sister company, Fl Power has taken a tremendous hit.... employees injuried in their control rooms when the windows blew out, tremendout damage to their facilities.... boy, looks like this area could be without power for a very very long time.....