Truth be told, I don't have a clue either. MrSpock has it right with the circulation over land and Puerto Rico getting lashed by the trailing band.

The ultimately intensity will likely be controlled largely by the recovery of the sea surface temperatures through the Bahamas after Frances and how fast this storm is moving. There is noticeably cooler water over the path Frances took, and this storm isn't moving so fast. Couple the small circulation with cooler water and slower motion and I would tend to think only modest strengthening in the 1-4 day period is most likely, but this storm seems to be getting better organized over land, may well not track over the same waters as Frances did, and this season has been anything but predictable.

I would go with the NHC's forecast for now, noting that if anything, I think at later periods it might be a slight bit on the high side. But better prepared than anything.

I went to try to sit in on the 4pm conference call, but the NWS guys here are pretty busy with Ivan still -- not to mention Jeanne -- so I decided it'd be best not to for now. We'll all know soon enough what the 5pm brings.