I have a little analogy for you guys. I shape surfboards for both amateur and pro surfers. What I look for is consistantcy(sp) in what i do ...meaning if I shape 10 boards for one guy and 7-8 of them are good then I've been successful. If I shape 1 board that is good and the guy loves it but the other 9 aren't then I'm not really doing a good job. I'm not saying JB misses 9 out of 10 times, I'm saying ,for the people who think this guy or that guy "nailed it" on a particular storm, then he needs to do that on a consistant basis to really be credible. I think the NHC does that even though they make mistakes. Hey they even have enough sense to put a "disclaimer" on their forecast tracks by acknowledging margins of error.