MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 16 2004 11:43 PM
Re: South Carolina ouf of the woods?

Jason, I am glad to hear you are ok, and I hope your wife is as well.
Just for kicks, I decided to look at what the upper air pattern was for Isabel. Jeanne is in a different location, but what made me look, is I remember a strong high at the surface that really enhanced our winds (in NJ). Another strong high is expected to be in the general area this time. The Vulcan in me thought, "If the surface high is in the same place, maybe the upper level pattern is similar". The placement of the Bermuda high is different, but in both cases, there was (this time, expected to be) a trough in the Plains states. The analog is far from perfect, but my point is, maybe we need to watch how and where the 588 dm high is located, and if it strengthens. Again, just for kicks. Of course, the obvious difference is that Jeanne will not be in the same area as Isabel. I am looking at this from a steering-current point of view.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20030918.html
GFS 7 day 500 mb map (errors may exceed a continent or two)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_500168192_m.shtml



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