Well this evening Jeanne still looks quite impressive for a tropical storm. Shes been interacting with Hispaniola and should move offshore of Haiti during the day on Friday. She should continue on forcast up to near Abaco island or just east of there. This is still where the thinking diverges. Last night and even earlier today I agreed with the models but I didnt want to take it into GA or SC early next week, but I favored slightly that it goes where JB said and thru the keys and into the Central Gulf. Looking at the pattern now and the strong ridge forcasting to form up over the NE into the Mid Atlantic and overall model agreement,, Im now switching over to the solution more so of Jeanne moving almost due north to about 28-29N and 75-77W by Monday evening with her slowing down. Now here is what I feel would happen with this second scenerio,, I think its going to do like what Andrew did but 200 miles up the coast. A turn to the w or even wsw after a jog to the sw will take her W or even WSW making landfall as a Cat 3 between 27N and 28.5N ( A big range since its right now 5-6 days out). A path across the state and entering the gulf and continuing a west path. This is in agreement with the GFS and we all know how outlined these models will be, but that is what I really do see what might happen. Im not throwing out yet the straight shot into the keys by Sunday night if the weakness is pulled further west then forcasted with a movement up near FT Myers or Sarasota before turning more W due to the Ridge coming down to the mid atlantic.
The thing is folks,,the ridge will come down and we are pretty sure it will be pretty strong with a very strong trough over the Rockies and Plains. So there is a 80% chance this is going to HIT the U.S. The Models say GA or SC or even NC right now, but I dont see that happening as they are too fast with her. There is a outside chance she could go into extreme se GA near Jackle Island but that is the farthest N that I could even think and that would be due to it getting up to 31N before the turn. I dont see any reason why this wont be near 140mph at landfall somewhere on the Florida coast. If it does the other solution into the keys and up to Ft Myers then a strong cat 2.